Calm Perspective Is Key to Weathering Business Cycles
From Todd Rustman, CEO, GR Capital Asset Management

In these very challenging times, one of our goals is to help our clients maintain perspective on the inevitable ups and downs of business cycles over time. When one looks at any graph of real estate, equities, bonds, inflation, commodities, etc., it is never a straight line. And there are downturns similar to what we are experiencing now. Perspective means viewing this time as a prudent buying opportunity, basically for all asset classes.
Contrary to media hype, we are in a period with more upside than downside risk. Our valuation work on the S&P 500 places this time period in the cheapest 1% of the last 100-plus years. The obvious question, then, is would you rather buy at full retail or when things are on sale?
But perspective also means looking at the risks of investing at a time like this. Many opportunities abound, but fear clouds the water. What we find most attractive are selective equities (technology, health care, alternative energy, even some financials), private equities, non-traded REITs, managed futures, and life settlements. All of these investments require perspective, however, meaning a long-term view toward potentially incredible returns over three to five years and NOT next week, next month or even in 2009. We don't recommend, even when looking at such a tremendous decrease in valuations, that investors simply remain in cash.
Finally, perspective requires that we look at this business cycle as one that is quite different from past cycles in some ways, yet similar in others. What will come out on the other side, we believe, will be a new era of prosperity with some lagging areas. But in the most fundamental view, perspective means hoping that we experience a good number more of these business cycles (even times like now!), so that we live a long and full life.
Todd Rustman, CFA, CFP, CLU, CSA
GR CAM
660 Newport Center Dr Suite 770
Newport Beach, CA 92660
Phone: 800-805-7526
trustman@gr-cam.com